Week 46, 2025

The second week of November saw digital assets steady amid a delicate balance of macro optimism and institutional repositioning. Bitcoin hovered near $102,000, supported by renewed whale accumulation and a floor forming around its rising production cost. U.S. markets regained footing after the government reopened, restoring liquidity and calming risk sentiment, while Europe advanced toward clearer digital asset regulation. ETF flows reflected investor rotation with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing profit taking, even as Solana attracted fresh inflows. Overall, the week marked a consolidation phase with undercurrents of institutional strength.

1. Bitcoin Whales Step Up Accumulation Amid Renewed Macro Tailwinds

Bitcoin remained locked within the $100,000–$105,000 range this week, as whales quietly increased accumulation amid improving macro conditions. Analysts observed over 45,000 BTC roughly $4.6 billion added to wallets this week, marking the second largest accumulation event of 2025. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $278 million in outflows, and futures open interest declined by 34% from its October peak, indicating a cleaner but less liquid market structure.

Impact: The combination of whale accumulation and reduced leverage suggests renewed institutional positioning despite cautious retail sentiment. Improved macro liquidity following the U.S. government’s reopening and softened China–U.S. trade tones offer moderate support. However, sustained ETF outflows and weak momentum could delay any breakout, keeping Bitcoin range-bound in the short term.

2. BlackRock and Fidelity Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Largest Weekly Outflows Since August

After a period of heavy inflows in late October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $790 million in net outflows this week the largest since August. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Fund accounted for nearly 70% of the redemptions, according to Bloomberg ETF data. Analysts cite profit taking and rotation toward short-term Treasuries following the recent rate repricing as key drivers.

Impact: ETF outflows underline a temporary cooling in institutional demand following months of accumulation. While not signaling a fundamental shift in long-term adoption, this rotation may cap upside momentum until liquidity reenters risk assets. The overall market remains structurally strong but vulnerable to short-term volatility from macro readjustments.

3. Coinbase Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Driven by Institutional Flow and Custody Growth

Coinbase reported $1.07 billion in revenue for Q3 2025 surpassing analyst expectations by 14%. Institutional trading volume rose 28% quarter-over-quarter, largely fueled by ETF issuers and asset managers leveraging Coinbase Prime custody. CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted “accelerating institutional engagement” and a pipeline of new token listings planned for Q4.

Impact: Coinbase’s results reinforce the narrative that U.S. institutions remain active participants in digital asset markets despite regulatory headwinds. Increased custody revenue demonstrates that ETFs are driving structural business growth, positioning Coinbase as a central player in the broader institutional infrastructure buildout.

4. European Parliament Advances Landmark Digital Asset Taxation Framework Summary

The European Parliament voted to advance a comprehensive digital asset taxation proposal aimed at harmonizing reporting standards across the EU. The legislation would require exchanges and wallet providers to share transaction level data with tax authorities starting in 2026. Lawmakers claim the measure will reduce evasion and support capital inflows by providing regulatory clarity.

Impact: If enacted, the EU framework could establish a global precedent for digital asset taxation transparency, enhancing institutional confidence in compliant trading venues. However, short-term uncertainty may arise as exchanges adapt to the new reporting standards and data infrastructure requirements.

5. Czech Central Bank Buys Bitcoin for the First Time as Part of Digital Asset 'Test Portfolio'

The Czech National Bank (CNB) announced the creation of a $1 million “test portfolio” of digital assets, including Bitcoin, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. The initiative, made outside the CNB’s foreign reserves, aims to gain practical experience in holding and managing blockchain-based instruments. Governor Aleš Michl emphasized that the move does not indicate any immediate policy shift toward crypto reserves but is part of broader innovation testing under the new CNB Lab initiative.

Impact: While small in scale, this marks the first confirmed instance of a central bank directly acquiring Bitcoin signaling growing institutional curiosity at the sovereign level. The pilot program underscores how central banks are preparing for tokenization and digital finance integration, even if they remain cautious about balance sheet exposure.

6. JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Support at $94,000, Keeps $170,000 Upside Case Intact

JPMorgan analysts identified Bitcoin’s production cost now estimated around $94,000 as the asset’s key support level, arguing that downside from current prices near $102,000 is limited. The report maintains an upside projection toward $170,000 within 6–12 months, citing a volatility adjusted comparison with gold and a potential 67% rise in market capitalization to achieve parity with gold-backed investments.

Impact: JPMorgan’s model reinforces a bullish long-term view on Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold. The rising production cost reflects growing network difficulty, which historically coincides with major accumulation phases. This institutional outlook may help stabilize sentiment amid near term consolidation and encourage further capital rotation from traditional safe havens into BTC.

7. ETF Watch

Solana ETFs Attract Inflows While Bitcoin and Ethereum See Redemptions: While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw over $460 million in combined weekly outflows, Solana ETFs recorded $18 million in inflows marking their fourth consecutive week of positive flows. Analysts suggest the trend reflects investor rotation toward higher beta assets amid subdued Bitcoin momentum.

Impact: This divergence highlights evolving institutional risk appetite within the ETF landscape. Solana’s growing ETF traction underscores rising demand for diversified exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting that alternative layer-1 ecosystems are gaining legitimacy in regulated investment vehicles.

Weekly Overview

Macro stabilization led by the U.S. government reopening and improved China–U.S. trade signals helped steady risk appetite. Central bank experimentation in Europe, combined with bullish institutional research from JPMorgan, reflected an undercurrent of growing confidence despite muted price action. Overall, the tone remains cautiously optimistic: leverage has reset, institutions continue to accumulate, and long-term structural interest in digital assets deepens even as short-term liquidity remains fragile.

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