FiCAS & Bitcoin Capital Market House View 2026

The traditional "four-year cycle" framework is no longer enough to explain the market.

In 2025, we witnessed a historic dislocation between verified economic activity and asset pricing. While valuations faced headwinds, the industry’s infrastructure solidified at an industrial pace. This is the basis of our 2026 House View.

We are entering a year of "Strategic Re-Rating," where the compounding utility of the settlement layer forces a convergence between depressed valuations and institutional reality.

The trade for 2026 is no longer about riding a cyclical tide, it is about capturing the arbitrage in this new structure.

TL;DR

Regulation & market structure
MiCA/CARF in effect, U.S. stablecoin framework advancing, Swiss developments accelerating institutional access.

Stablecoins as settlement rails
2025 transfer volume hit ~$27 trillion. Supply now ~$307 billion. This is no longer experimental infrastructure.

RWA & tokenization
The "flight to pristine collateral" is real. Treasury-backed tokens and on-chain credit are scaling.

On-chain signals
Late-cycle characteristics with near-term asymmetries pointing to stabilization. Not a call, just what the data shows.

Sectors to watch
Interoperability, ZK/privacy infrastructure, prediction markets, decentralized AI.

The market is moving beyond narrative-driven cycles toward a regime defined by regulation, institutional rails, and on-chain financial infrastructure.

This report is your playbook for a market that is transitioning from a retail-driven cycle to a complex institutional regime.

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