Week 4, 2026

Week 4 saw the first crypto IPO of 2026, Trump's pro-crypto executive order, and Bitcoin testing support amid global risk-off sentiment as institutional infrastructure continued maturing.

The fourth week of January 2026 showcased crypto's institutional maturation through both volatility and landmark developments. Bitcoin faced macro headwinds from tariff fears while BitGo completed the first crypto IPO of the year and Trump's executive order solidified federal crypto policy, advancing the sector's legitimization despite short-term price pressure.

1. BitGo Prices IPO at $18, First Crypto Public Offering of 2026

Headline: BitGo Raises $212.8M in Above-Range IPO, Valuing Company at $2.2B

On January 21, BitGo Holdings priced its highly anticipated IPO at $18 per share, exceeding its marketed range of $15-$17 and raising $212.8 million. The digital asset custody platform achieved a fully diluted $2.2 billion valuation, selling 11.8 million shares. Founded in 2013, BitGo serves over 4,900 institutional clients across 100+ countries, providing custody, wallets, and infrastructure services. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup led the offering, with listing on the NYSE under ticker "BTGO".

Impact: BitGo's above-range pricing signals strong institutional appetite for crypto infrastructure despite recent volatility. Unlike trading-dependent exchanges, BitGo positions itself as a pure-play custody business benefiting from long-term adoption regardless of short-term price swings. VanEck analysts issued a $26.50 price target (47% above IPO), citing dominant market position and recurring revenue. The successful IPO validates that institutional crypto infrastructure represents a distinct investable category, potentially paving the way for additional sector IPOs as regulatory clarity improves.

2. Bitcoin Drops Below $90K in Global Risk-Off Selloff

Headline: BTC Falls 4% as Tariff Fears and Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Risk Asset Exodus

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on January 20 for the first time since January 9, declining as much as 4% amid a broader global selloff. The drop coincided with sharp declines in equities, US Treasuries, and Japanese bonds as investors de-risked following Trump's tariff threats against European nations and escalating Greenland tensions. Ethereum underperformed with a 7% decline below $3,000, while Solana dropped 5.3%. The selloff wiped approximately $100 billion from total crypto market cap.

Impact: The synchronized selloff demonstrates Bitcoin's continued correlation with macro conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. The $90,000 level emerged as critical short-term support, marking an inflection point for directional moves. Despite weakness, analysts noted long-term holder supply continues increasing (+10,700 BTC) while exchange outflows persist, suggesting underlying accumulation. The episode highlights crypto's evolving role behaving less like an uncorrelated hedge and more like a high-beta risk asset sensitive to macro liquidity and geopolitical developments.

3. Trump Signs Executive Order Establishing Pro-Crypto Federal Policy

Headline: Presidential Order Creates Digital Asset Working Group, Bans CBDCs, Revokes Biden Regulations

President Trump signed the "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology" executive order on January 23, marking a fundamental shift in US digital asset policy. The order establishes the President's Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, led by AI and Crypto advisor David Sacks, with participation from Treasury, SEC, CFTC, DOJ, and federal agencies. Key provisions:

• Prohibits Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
• Revokes Biden's Executive Order 14067
• Directs agencies to review regulations within 30 days, recommendations within 60 days
• Evaluates creation of national digital asset stockpile from lawfully seized crypto

Impact: The order represents Trump's commitment to positioning the US as the "crypto capital of the world" through regulatory frameworks rather than enforcement. The 30/60/180-day timeline signals aggressive realignment that could provide clarity within months. The CBDC prohibition and emphasis on "fair banking access" addresses Operation Choke Point 2.0 concerns. While not legislation, it establishes federal policy direction guiding agency rulemaking and coordinating with pending Congressional market structure bills, potentially accelerating institutional adoption.

4. Strategy Announces $2.13B Bitcoin Purchase Amid Market Weakness

Headline: MicroStrategy's Largest BTC Buy Since July Provides Support During Selloff

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed on January 20 that it acquired approximately $2.13 billion in Bitcoin over eight days, marking its largest purchase since July. The aggressive accumulation occurred as Bitcoin tested support below $90,000, demonstrating counter-cyclical buying during market weakness. The purchase brings Strategy's total holdings above 689,000 BTC, representing over 3% of Bitcoin's total supply. Strategy shares declined 2.23% alongside crypto assets during the announcement.

Impact: Strategy's buying during market weakness reinforces its role as a significant price stabilizer and demonstrates institutional conviction despite volatility. The timing served to provide market support, with Bitcoin rebounding modestly following the disclosure. OTC traders noted that "MSTR's largest purchase in 7 months suggests significant appetite for Bitcoin exposure through equity wrappers." The persistent accumulation removes substantial supply from liquid markets and signals to other corporates that Bitcoin treasury strategies remain viable during consolidation, potentially attracting additional corporate adoption.

5. Crypto ETF Infrastructure Expands Despite Flow Volatility

Headline: Cumulative Spot Crypto ETF Volume Crosses $2 Trillion Milestone

US spot crypto ETFs demonstrated mixed performance in Week 4, with Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $93 million since January 1 despite strong opening-week inflows. However, cumulative trading volume crossed $2 trillion on January 2 doubling from $1 trillion in just eight months (half the time of the first trillion). Altcoin ETFs continued showing relative strength, with Solana maintaining consistent inflows since December 3 and XRP products recording positive weekly flows.

Impact: Mixed flows reflect institutional repositioning amid macro uncertainty rather than fundamental conviction loss. The doubling of volume to $2 trillion in half the timeframe demonstrates accelerating institutional engagement. BlackRock's IBIT maintains ~70% market share by volume, solidifying dominance in institutional Bitcoin access. Persistent strength in altcoin ETF products signals portfolio diversification beyond Bitcoin. While near-term flows remain sensitive to Fed policy, the structural buildout continues, with analysts projecting $180-220B in Bitcoin ETF assets by year-end 2026.

Week 4 Summary: Infrastructure Advances Amid Macro Headwinds

Week 4 demonstrated crypto's dual reality: maturing institutional infrastructure coexisting with persistent macro sensitivity. BitGo's successful IPO and Trump's executive order advanced legitimization, while Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets during tariff-driven selloff highlighted ongoing volatility.

Key takeaways:

• $90,000 emerged as critical BTC support, with accumulation patterns (Strategy's buying, exchange outflows) suggesting attractive entry points
• ETF infrastructure continues expanding despite flow volatility, with cumulative volume milestones and altcoin diversification
• Trump's executive order establishes clear federal policy favoring innovation, with aggressive timelines providing potential certainty within months
• Convergence of legislative progress, executive action, and corporate adoption creates favorable structural conditions despite near-term headwinds

Markets now await implementation details from the President's Working Group and potential Fed rate signals that could catalyze the next directional move.